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This surely should not continue. It makes no sense that it persists. Yet, persist it does.

A Record-Chasing Victory Against the Odds

The Claret and Blue army arrived at Saturday's top-flight clash at Chelsea aiming for a historic record of eleven consecutive wins, matching runs set in 1897 and 1914. For much of the match, this feat seemed highly unlikely, as the hosts controlled proceedings, took the lead, and could have added to their advantage. But, Chelsea are vulnerability with a lead, particularly at home, while Villa have cultivated a remarkable knack of securing wins on the road after falling behind.

First, Ollie Watkins leveled the scores, the ball ricocheting in off his leg and the post after his first effort was saved by Robert Sánchez. Later on, he secured the winner with a precise header. These were just his fourth and fifth league goals of the campaign. Watkins might believe a bit of luck was overdue, and there's no question the equalizing goal had a significant element of luck. Currently, however, Lady Luck seems to be smiling on Villa.

The Statistics Of an Implausible Run

The last nine of these eleven straight wins were by a solitary goal. They have managed a shutout in only one of those matches. Their expected goals (xG) have been superior in only six of those fixtures, and in two of those, the margin was minimal. Their last five road Premier League victories have all come from behind. This pattern should not, but pundits have been claiming that for weeks, and Villa continue winning. The central question is whether their results will finally align with their performances or if their level of play can rise to justify the points haul.

This seems unsustainable be possible, but everyone has been saying that for weeks and Villa keep on winning.

A Defining Characteristic: Belief

Coming from behind is not merely a trait of this season. Over the past three seasons, no side has gained more points when trailing than Villa's 54; Eighteen of those have been secured this term, 50% more than the next best team, Sunderland. This season, Villa players from the bench have contributed 9 goals. Two important points can be made about Villa under their manager.

• First, they possess a profound confidence that means no game ever feels beyond them. This is, in part, self-perpetuating: the more they achieve comebacks, the more they are convinced they can do it again.
• Secondly, Emery has proven exceptionally adept at influencing games through his substitutions.

A Masterful Change

While Chelsea won the expected goals 2.1 to 1.4, Villa became dominant from the moment, around the hour mark, when Emery made a triple substitution. Watkins replaced Malen, who had struggled with limited service. Suddenly, the ball was held up better, and Watkins's runs in behind caused problems. Onana and Jadon Sancho also came on, strengthening the midfield and adding the width they had lacked earlier.

The Blues registered 10 shots to Villa's zero before the substitutions; following them, Villa created eleven opportunities to Chelsea's four. By the final whistle, Villa were in control and could have won by a greater margin. Not for the first time, opposing manager Maresca struggled to respond as the game slipped away; the sense remains that he is better at implementing a game plan with time to prepare than adapting in the moment.

Individual Brilliance

Villa have also developed a happy habit of individuals producing moments of match-winning quality to turn games. Morgan Rogers has been decisive at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The sight of him working the ball onto his favored foot and curling a finish into the top corner has become a recurring theme. It was the winger who transformed the game after coming on at Leeds. Watkins changed the game at Stamford Bridge. The contributions of defenders like Konsa and Lindelof on Saturday were also vital. At present, it's not always the whole side playing brilliantly, but sufficient players within it stepping up to earn the victories.

The Road Ahead

Can they maintain this run? They now sit three points behind Arsenal, and as the season nears its midway point, they have to be viewed as in the title race, certainly more so than teams like Chelsea or reigning title holders Liverpool. The upcoming away fixture at Arsenal will be a major test of that status. Villa defeated Arsenal earlier this month, a match in which they not only won the xG but registered an xG 40% higher than any other side has achieved against Arsenal in the league this season.

The Gunners have since put together their own run of narrow victories, winning 3 in a row without ever being entirely convincing. The upcoming clash will be a test for both sides – and if Villa win a 12th game in a row, it would become increasingly difficult to deny their championship pedigree.