A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
