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Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's long-running campaign to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to host the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a major let down to many people who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to together combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Ankara declined to withdraw. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a summit obstructed from the top if his administration managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in international meetings see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to lead negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This matters. While some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference except for making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement looking like the best chance possible to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.